SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070250
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-070345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0950 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VA INTO
SOUTHERN/EASTERN MD
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 257...
VALID 070250Z - 070345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 257 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 257 CONTINUES UNTIL 08Z ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC
AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VA INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MD. WHILE SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES CONTINUES...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS.
PRIMARY SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VA LATE THIS
EVENING...SEEMINGLY AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH IMPLIED
WARM SECTOR-GLANCING FORCING HAVING INCREASED ACROSS WESTERN VA OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH 00Z OBSERVED RNK/GSO RAOBS MODIFIED FOR
CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST SOME NEAR-SURFACE INHIBITION
EXISTS...RATHER FAVORABLE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A SUPERCELL/ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WITH ANY SURFACE ROOTED STORM ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND/OR
IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STALLED WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
VA. WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS MAINTAINING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA
FROM RALEIGH/WAKEFIELD SUGGEST THAT SSWLY WINDS AROUND 1 KM HAVE
INCREASED TO 50 KT OR GREATER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER FAVORABLE 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2.
..GUYER.. 05/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 37747878 38487659 38457578 37647539 36897600 36007747
35707868 35847965 36887985 37747878
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