SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122338
ALZ000-MSZ000-130115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MS...AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122338Z - 130115Z
SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID/UPPER WESTERLIES...A 30-40 KT 500 MB SPEED
MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO MAINTENANCE OF A SUSTAINED
SMALL...BUT ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. DESPITE THE WEAKNESS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW.
FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FORCING AND STORM-SCALE DYNAMICS COULD SLOW THE
DEMISE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING...DESPITE THE ONSET OF
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH RATHER
MODEST LAPSE RATES...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE. BUT...SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE
STARKVILLE/COLUMBUS MS AREAS BY AROUND 02Z ...AND PERHAPS
TUSCALOOSA/BIRMINGHAM AL DURING THE 03-05Z.
..KERR.. 05/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34288941 34258850 34008726 33758664 32948650 32538728
32528808 32648899 33048998 34288941
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