Thursday, May 14, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0827

ACUS11 KWNS 150044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150044
TXZ000-150215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 150044Z - 150215Z

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TX TRANSPECOS REGION SHOULD EXPAND
WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL SELYS INCREASE THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA REVEAL ISOLATED/DEVELOPING TCU/CB
NEAR AND NE OF MIDLAND TX...WITHIN AIRMASS FEATURING MODERATE
INSTABILITY ATOP A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...SOME INCREASE WILL OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL
SELYS INCREASE THIS EVENING BENEATH MODEST /AROUND 20 KT/ MID-LEVEL
WLYS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BECOMING AT LEAST
MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS...SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING STORM
COVERAGE. WHILE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND ASSOCIATED EVAPORATIVE
POTENTIAL COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUST OR TWO...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL -- PARTICULARLY LATER THIS EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS THUS BECOME ELEVATED WITH
TIME.

..GOSS.. 05/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31600188 32300248 33650170 34250082 33859942 33219931
32289928 31630140 31600188

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