SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150044
TXZ000-150215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 150044Z - 150215Z
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TX TRANSPECOS REGION SHOULD EXPAND
WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL SELYS INCREASE THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA REVEAL ISOLATED/DEVELOPING TCU/CB
NEAR AND NE OF MIDLAND TX...WITHIN AIRMASS FEATURING MODERATE
INSTABILITY ATOP A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...SOME INCREASE WILL OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL
SELYS INCREASE THIS EVENING BENEATH MODEST /AROUND 20 KT/ MID-LEVEL
WLYS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BECOMING AT LEAST
MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS...SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING STORM
COVERAGE. WHILE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND ASSOCIATED EVAPORATIVE
POTENTIAL COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUST OR TWO...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL -- PARTICULARLY LATER THIS EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS THUS BECOME ELEVATED WITH
TIME.
..GOSS.. 05/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31600188 32300248 33650170 34250082 33859942 33219931
32289928 31630140 31600188
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