SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151214
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-151345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...SERN NE...NWRN MO...SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151214Z - 151345Z
AS ONE SMALL MCS MOVES EAST ACROSS NCNTRL MISSOURI...ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE ALONG A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER NRN KS...AND INTO SRN NE. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE SOME THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND A WATCH
IS POSSIBLE IF A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS OBSERVED.
WITH LLJ TOPPING OUT AT 50-60KT ACROSS OK/KS THIS MORNING...
MAGNITUDE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS GREAT PLAINS WARM FRONT IN KS IS
PROBABLY AT ITS MOST INTENSE. LARGER SCALE LIFT ACROSS THIS ZONE MAY
ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS UT/WY ATTM. PARCELS ORIGINATING IN WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR
MASS FARTHER SOUTH ARE REACHING AN LFC AROUND 750MB INVOF NCNTRL KS
AND REALIZING MUCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR WITHIN 700-400MB LAYER...PER LATEST RUC/ACARS
SOUNDINGS...APPEARS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE/UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...UPDRAFT STRENGTH GIVEN
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THESE STORMS...WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLATED/BRIEF LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BECOME FURTHER SUPPORTIVE
OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
..CARBIN.. 05/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 39339482 39259599 39599761 40199845 40819853 41109795
41229623 40959401 40439349 39579364 39339482
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