MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0852

ACUS11 KWNS 200445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200444
FLZ000-200645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 200444Z - 200645Z

STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE BAND COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO OVER
E-CNTRL FL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE NECESSARY UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF MAINTAINING
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION AS THEY DEVELOP INLAND.

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OFF THE SWRN FL COAST IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY WWD. AN OUTER CONVERGENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
HAS INTENSIFIED OFF THE E CNTRL FL COAST AND EXTENDS INLAND THROUGH
CAPE CANAVERAL TO ORLANDO. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BAND IS
MOVING NWWD...BUT TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AFTER THEY
MOVE INLAND WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA WITH 500-1000 MUCAPE. FARTHER NORTH FROM CNTRL THROUGH NRN
FL...INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED /BELOW 500 J/KG/ AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE VERY FEW STRIKES INLAND. A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF LOW ACROSS NRN FL...SOMEWHAT
DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FARTHER SOUTH. A
NARROW CORRIDOR MAY EXIST NEAR THE CONVECTIVE BAND WHERE LARGER 0-1
KM HODOGRAPHS OVERLAP SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHALLOW
STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. HOWEVER...MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN A VERY LOCALIZED
THREAT INLAND FROM THE COAST.

..DIAL.. 05/20/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28208037 28268125 28198168 28488207 28968176 28818064
28208037

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