MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0861

ACUS11 KWNS 241550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241549
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-241745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY INCLUDING WRN LONG
ISLAND...NWRN CT...CNTRL/WRN MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241549Z - 241745Z

MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE PRIMARY CDFNT FROM UPSTATE NY/NRN VT SWWD
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION THEN SWWD INTO NWRN PA AT 15Z. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURGE OR TROUGH AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WERE
EVOLVING ACROSS CNTRL MA...SERN NY AND NERN PA. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...AIR MASS WAS WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 70S WITH SFC DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 DEG F. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG
SBCAPE WILL EXIST BY MID-AFTN IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES AND THE NRN EDGE OF THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOCATED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND.

JET STREAK ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPR TROUGH WILL TRAVEL FROM THE
CNTRL GRTLKS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTN...BOOSTING BOTH UVV
AND VERTICAL SHEAR...STRONGEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOUNDARY LAYER CU
WAS ALREADY FORMING FROM NERN PA INTO SERN NY. EXPECT TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS AND MOVE ENE INTO PARTS
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF NJ/WRN LONG ISLAND BY MID-LATE
AFTN. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST
FOR STRONGER MULTICELL /PERHAPS BRIEF SUPERCELL/ STRUCTURES WITH SVR
HAIL/WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT APCHS THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SERN/SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN LONG ISLAND.

..RACY.. 05/24/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 42017185 41127327 40617395 40357497 40347590 40527637
41127635 41587604 42287483 42637322 42707237 42697147
42317139 42017185

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