MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0884

ACUS11 KWNS 281950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281949
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-282045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS AND VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281949Z - 282045Z

MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC AMIDST POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN A PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR WITH PULSE TO SPORADIC MULTICELL CLUSTERS LIKELY RESULTING IN
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED IN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. POCKETS OF
STRONGER HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LEADING TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. AREA VAD PROFILERS DEPICT
WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 15-20 KT. WITH STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
GENERALLY CONFINED W OF THE APPALACHIANS...PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD
REMAIN PULSE-LIKE. STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
OCCASIONAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 05/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 38087687 36587661 35237747 34337873 33637964 33348070
33628163 34338233 35278170 36638032 37407958 38127862
38087687

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