SWODY1
SPC AC 011626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2009
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY...
GULF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THRU THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING
CURRENTLY FROM LM SWWD THRU SRN IA TO NWRN KS. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
BE FOCUS FOR PRIMARILY A DIURNAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
FAVORED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IS DISPLACED IN THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
PRIMARY WESTERLIES WHICH ARE ACROSS NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY. THE
MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY THAT PORTION OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
PRIMARILY A MULTICELLULAR MODE EXPECTED. WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM
AND POTENTIALLY MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG...LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT. BY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET
RAMPS UP TO 30KT INCREASING THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT THRU WARM
ADVECTION...ONE OR MORE MCS/S COULD DEVELOP LEADING TO A LITTLE
GREATER RISK OF AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT AS THEY TRACK EWD ALONG/N
OF FRONTAL ZONE INTO OH VALLEY.
...SRN HI PLNS...
SCTD AFTN/EVE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRN STREAM
VORT. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY MOIST /SFC
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S/...PW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. IN
ADDITION...WITH EML ALOFT...SFC HEATING WILL BOOST SBCAPE TO
AOA 1500 J/KG. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR MULTICELLS
OR WEAK SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND FROM WRN/CNTRL KS SW INTO WRN
OK/NW TX.
HAVE SHIFTED THE LITTLE HIGHER SVR PROBS/SLIGHT RISK NWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. IN THIS AREA THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...25-30KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG..SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A
DOWNBURST WIND THREAT.
..NRN GRT BASIN TO NRN RCKYS...
PW VALUES UP TO 1.0 INCH AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL
YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTN OVER ORE AND S/W OF FRONT NOSING
S INTO THE NRN RCKYS/HI PLNS. HEATING AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS
SHOULD INITIATE SCTD AFTN/EVE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SVR WIND/HAIL. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER
THE ORE CASCADES AND THE NRN CA SIERRA/ SISKYOUS...WHERE ASCENT MAY
MAXIMIZE BENEATH BAND OF ENHANCED SLY FLOW E OF OFFSHORE UPR LOW.
..HALES/SMITH.. 06/01/2009
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