DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281620
SWODY1
SPC AC 281617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS KY/TN...AS AN UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OH VALLEY. RATHER STRONG
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WV SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KY/TN. THESE
STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE MLCAPE
VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT FROM WEST TN INTO MS/AR...COVERAGE
OF INTENSE CONVECTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED
PULSE OR WEAK MULTICELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF GUSTY
WINDS.

...AL/GA/FL...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL. FULL SUNSHINE
IN THIS AREA COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL YIELD
STRONG INSTABILITY DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MLCAPE OVER 3500 J/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD RESULT IN WET MICROBURSTS OVER THIS REGION LATER TODAY.
THREAT MAY ALSO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL WHERE
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

...CO...
A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG HEATING ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS PLUME WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL CO...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO DURING THE EVENING.
ISOLATED STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 06/28/2009

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