SWODY1
SPC AC 291624
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2009
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN WAKE OF MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEST HEATING
UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. CUMULUS IS ALREADY EXPANDING LATE
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SCATTERED LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SHEAR
WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER FOR SOME MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION AND
ISOLATED HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER DARK.
...TX ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERITY WILL BE LIMITED BY
WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER
CORES GIVEN THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION SHOULD INTO PORTIONS OF
NRN FL WHERE MODEST LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW COULD SUPPORT LINES/CLUSTERS
OF STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
...CENTRAL INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK LEE TROUGH SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ERN CO INTO WRN SD/FAR ERN WY/SERN MT AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN AOA 50F AND WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY. ISOLATED HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF SURFACE FRONT STALLING E-W
ACROSS S-CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK IMPULSE MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES. PW/S REMAIN QUITE DRY...BUT A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
HAIL INTO THE EVENING.
..EVANS/GRAMS.. 06/29/2009
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