SWODY2
SPC AC 131728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD -- CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM...A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE WEST -- IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK SRN STREAM
SHORT-WAVE FEATURES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND FLATTEN
THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LINGER FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE KS/OK VICINITY AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SLY/SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE PLAINS...PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AND BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EPISODIC
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...HIGH PLAINS EWD/SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
STORMS -- POSSIBLY ORGANIZED INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS --
SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN A ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH THESE
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...WITH A GENERAL SEWD SHIFT OF THE STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL MODULATE DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MAIN DAY 2 THREAT AREA...AND THUS
FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT REMAIN DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN. IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS
MOST CONVECTION S OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT -- FROM ROUGHLY THE
RED RIVER SWD...THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS COULD DEVELOP INVOF A W TX
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN ELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...AND
THEN SPREADING/DEVELOPING SEWD INTO THE LOWER PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- AND PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS.
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS -- WHERE AMPLY VEERING/SHEAR
FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL EXIST -- SHOULD BECOME
LOCALLY-SEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF ONLY 15% SEVERE PROBABILITY
ATTM...AS AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN UNTIL LATER FORECASTS GIVEN WIDESPREAD/PRIOR CONVECTION.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ALONG THE REMNANT
TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A
SMALL/SUBTLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THIS
LOW AS SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...AND WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL
WNWLYS FORECAST...A FEW STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN TO MARGINAL SEVERE
LEVELS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..GOSS.. 06/13/2009
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