SWODY2
SPC AC 221722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE CNTRL U.S. ALONG THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE...A STRONG SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ACROSS
MT/ND INTO SRN MANITOBA. HOWEVER...NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AS
PRIMARY INFLUENCE/ASCENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO NWRN ONTARIO. SWD ACROSS THE NRN
U.S...SFC PRESSURES WILL RISE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WHICH
WILL FORCE A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM THE ND/MN
BORDER...SWWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...IT APPEARS STRONG
HEATING ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR
FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE. FARTHER NORTHEAST...RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MAY ENHANCE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN SD INTO MN ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER WLY
FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...ISOLATED-SCT SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE NOTED ALONG
ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...SERN U.S..
DEEP NLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AS UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL ARC FROM THE WRN TN VALLEY SEWD
INTO FL...COINCIDENT WITH SWWD SAGGING WIND SHIFT. WITH STRONG
HEATING EXPECTED ALONG THIS ZONE IT APPEARS ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A
SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS REGION IF IT BECOMES MORE
APPARENT THAT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL BE MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED.
GIVEN THAT PWAT VALUES MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS COULD BE OBSERVED.
..DARROW.. 06/22/2009
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