SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011955
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-012200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEB...NORTHERN KS...SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN
MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011955Z - 012200Z
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB INTO
SOUTHERN IA. STRONG INSTABILITY MAY HELP TO OFFSET MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. A WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR GLD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHERN IA. TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S...ARE YIELDING MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH REMAINING. IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THIS AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL POSE A RISK OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND HAIL IN
STRONGER CORES. ALSO...BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK AND SHOULD
GENERALLY LIMIT LONGEVITY/ORGANIZATION OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS.
..HART.. 06/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...
GLD...
LAT...LON 40860151 41249866 41389356 41119232 40059349 39409604
39199833 39029984 38650097 38860194 39720218 40860151
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