SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012030
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-012230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012030Z - 012230Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM...AND ARE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TX
BORDER. OTHER HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS ARE
WEAK...BUT BAND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA BY EVENING STRENGTHENING THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB...WHICH WILL PROMOTE STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS AND SOME HAIL PRODUCTION. A FEW SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH
OF STORMS AS OUTFLOWS MERGE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..HART.. 06/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33890395 35930363 36990268 36550038 33640001 32310056
31770256 32500353 33890395
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