SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021658
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-021830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF IL/INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021658Z - 021830Z
AN UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MO INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE GENERALLY EXTENDS
WEST-EAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL MO INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
IL/INDIANA. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO AT MIDDAY AMIDST LOWER 80S F SURFACE TEMP AND
NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE CINH PER MODIFIED 12Z SPRINGFIELD MO OBSERVED
RAOB. AMIDST A WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY FROM THE INCIPIENT SOUTHEAST MO TSTMS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...WITH A
BIT OF ADDITIONAL AID ON THE LARGE SCALE VIA A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND/OR WEAK RESIDUAL MCV MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO. WESTERLIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ADEQUATE FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LEVEL
/MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE/ WOULD SUPPORT
SOME RELATIVELY ORGANIZED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL HAIL.
..GUYER.. 06/02/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37628815 37129095 37639255 38879306 39959006 40078600
38618615 37628815
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