SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031820
LAZ000-TXZ000-031915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TX / FAR WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031820Z - 031915Z
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS COMPOSITE SHOW A MCV NEAR
TYR WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF SERN AR
TO 25 MI SSE GGG...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE INTERSECTING A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE WIND SHIFT EXTENDING S TOWARDS GALVESTON BAY.
THE LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS PROVIDING A FOCUSED AREA
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE--LIKELY AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM
NEAR GGG SSWWD TO LBX WHERE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ARE PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION.
MODIFYING LCH/SHV 12Z RAOBS FOR LOW 80S TEMP / NEAR 70 DEWPOINT
INDICATE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...THE MORNING AREA RAOBS DISPLAYED A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCH. THIS ALL SEEMS TO
SUPPORT PULSE-LIKE TSTM MODE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS BEING
CAPABLE OF ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..SMITH.. 06/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31439537 32079554 32869453 32989388 32479314 31609322
30799346 29839383 29359455 28999541 29099574 29549556
30629518 31439537
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