MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0944

ACUS11 KWNS 041551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041551
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-041715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN FL/THE FL PANHANDLE INTO S CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041551Z - 041715Z

THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...WITHIN A BROADER SCALE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ...IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COLUMBUS GA AREA
BETWEEN NOW AND 18-21Z. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE PROBABLY IS
ALREADY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING STORMS AROUND THE TALLAHASSEE
AREA OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AS SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. BOTH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ARE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...AND THESE ARE DEFINITE LIMITING
FACTORS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. HOWEVER... OBSERVATIONAL AND
FORECAST DATA INDICATE A 20-30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET ACCOMPANYING
THE UPPER IMPULSE...WHICH...IN THE PRESENCE OF A HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG ...MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO LARGE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH
SUSTAINED ROTATION. AN ISOLATED... GENERALLY BRIEF...TORNADO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 06/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 32218487 32838409 32828313 32748243 32458178 31388207
30648259 30118308 29978353 30178404 30108464 30228494
30888499 31328510 31758508 32218487

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