SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041800
ORZ000-042000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041800Z - 042000Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PIVOT THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW....NOW CENTERED JUST WEST
OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
SOUTHERN CASCADES. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL COOLING IS
CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS SURFACE HEATING PROGRESSES
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO
SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AS 500 MB FLOW
STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE REGION. INHIBITION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR
INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...BEFORE
PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASES DURING AND SHORTLY AFTER
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME
FAVORABLE...WHERE TERRAIN ALLOWS IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS...FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 06/04/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...
LAT...LON 44302163 44912066 45211883 45021746 43441705 42241795
42191931 42072094 42572159 44302163
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