SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041830
NCZ000-VAZ000-041930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN VA...NRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041830Z - 041930Z
A COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICES CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL OCCUR SHORTLY...AND COULD LEAD TO A WW.
STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER HAS BECOME A FOCUS FOR RECENT NEW CONVECTIVE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A FAVORABLY
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY TO MODERATE
LEVELS...BUT 25-30 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES IS CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. EVEN WITHIN WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RATHER SMALL...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT BRIEF
TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS.
..KERR.. 06/04/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 37427895 37437787 37487730 37187656 36847621 36507634
36457761 36447889 36407979 36757988 37427895
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