SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041841
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-041945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN CO / NERN NM / TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 041841Z - 041945Z
TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER THE COLORADO
FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE/RATON MESA. AS TSTMS MOVE ESEWD OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...THE STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING TCU/DEVELOPING
STORMS OVER CNTRL CO ROCKIES WITH CU SWD TOWARDS RTN. AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS PERSISTED OVER NERN CO UNTIL AROUND 17Z GENERALLY ALONG/N OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE...RETARDING SURFACE HEATING IN THIS AREA. A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPED AS A RESULT...AND IS
ELONGATED FROM NEAR GLD TO 15 MI S LIC TO 25 MI N COS. THE REGION
TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS DESTABILIZED--OWING LARGELY IN PART TO
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITH 18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATING A THERMAL
RIDGE EXTENDING NWD FROM NERN NM TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 94 CORRIDOR
WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE 40S TO MID 50S.
WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS...AND
ADEQUATELY STRONG H5 FLOW /35 KTS/ IN PLACE PER RECENT PLT VWP
DATA--SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING /POSSIBLY SPLITTING/ STORMS
AS UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. VERY
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL GROWTH AND DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER WILL PROMOTE EVAPORATIVELY COOLED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
ISOLD DMGG WINDS. A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A TORNADO APPEARS GREATEST
ALONG AND N OF AFOREMENTIONED ERN CO BOUNDARY...WHERE LOWER LCL/S
AND ENHANCED SURFACE VORTICITY MAY CONTINUE TO RESIDE.
..SMITH.. 06/04/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35290381 35580404 36350435 37640461 38840499 39220500
39360467 39230381 38960316 38450268 37110214 36110215
35410270 35220310 35290381
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