SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051749
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-051845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / PARTS OF NERN NC AND DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 051749Z - 051845Z
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED REGARDING A CONDITIONAL/NON-ZERO TORNADO
THREAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME NERN NC/SERN
VA/DELMARVA. A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED MCV STEADILY PROGRESSING NEWD
OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL NC TOWARDS SERN VA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A SW-NE ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
FROM A 1006 LOW INVOF 35 MI W RDU NEWD TO SBY. RECENT SINGLE SITE
RADAR IMAGERY DISPLAYED WEAK CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH A FEW DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SERN VA.
ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEG F/ HAS LED
TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /UP TO 2500 J/KG SBCAPE/ ACCORDING
TO MODIFIED 12Z WAL RAOB FOR 80/70 SURFACE CONDITIONS. ADEQUATELY
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW PER INTERPOLATED AREA RAOB/VWP DATA MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION IF ROBUST UPDRAFTS
DEVELOP...PERHAPS SUPPORTING AN ISOLD TORNADO.
..SMITH.. 06/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...
LAT...LON 36277826 36427834 37397715 38267549 38247527 37997512
36947627 36137798 36277826
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