MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0952

ACUS11 KWNS 052018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052018
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-052145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY AND NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 052018Z - 052145Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. TIMING
OF MORE VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN ...BUT A
TORNADO WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

A VEIL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. HAS SLOWED SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF
THE FRONT RANGE. BUT...SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB
THROUGH THE MID 50S WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AND...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED
ALONG THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A
WEAK IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CREST OF THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD...THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS FORCING COUPLED WITH CONTINUED SLOW SURFACE
HEATING AND MOISTENING PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
FOR INCREASING SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME.

VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 30-50+ KT WESTERLY MID/
HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE SUPERCELLS IN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES TOWARD
EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 06/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 42810602 42930512 42350424 41790343 41140273 40520187
40310126 39700130 39240166 39220205 39070299 39220382
39910488 40950536 41670576 42340618 42810602

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.