MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0953

ACUS11 KWNS 052058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052058
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-052200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLE / TX S PLAINS / EXTREME SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052058Z - 052200Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS DEVELOPING TSTMS MOVE EWD
FROM NM INTO TX. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND
THREAT MAY OCCUR TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE DELAYED UNTIL CONVECTION MOVES INTO MORE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS
ALONG/E OF DIFFUSE DRYLINE/LEE PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED N-S ALONG THE
TX/NM BORDER. RECENTLY DEVELOPED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS NEAR GUY WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS IN THE NEXT HOUR
BEFORE MORE ACTIVITY AND CORRESPONDING UPWARD TREND IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL COMMENCES AS CONVECTION MOVES FROM ERN NM INTO TX.

25-35 KT H5 FLOW OBSERVED RECENTLY AT AMA/FDX/TCU VWP/S ATOP
GENERALLY SLY SURFACE FLOW YIELDS A SUPPORTIVE SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILE. PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION
WITH A DESTABILIZING AIRMASS /WEAKENING CINH/ WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF ISOLD LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WINDS AS STORMS MORE INTO MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.

..SMITH.. 06/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 36840212 37260189 37350146 37290084 36940043 36390033
33890106 33570162 33530215 33740260 34290285 34660280
36840212

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