SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062221
NEZ000-KSZ000-070015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062221Z - 070015Z
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FROM CNTRL KS NEWD
INTO NERN KS/SERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
WILL BE LIKELY...AND A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM SW IA INTO
CNTRL/SW KS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD
INTO NRN KS. STRONG HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
MID 90S F...AND MODIFIED FORECAST AND OBSERVED SPECIAL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE CAP SHOULD BE BREACHED SOON. CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SFC
TROUGH AS WELL AS AN INCREASING LLJ AND THETA E ADVECTION MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CNTRL AND
ESPECIALLY NERN KS LATER TODAY. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
COUPLED WITH LARGE T/TD SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST
RELATIVELY HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..JEWELL.. 06/06/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39309878 39039926 38510000 38010010 37619896 37899808
39029659 39819576 40179559 40719588 40629675 40209726
39719810 39309878
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