MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0963

ACUS11 KWNS 062236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062235
NEZ000-COZ000-070000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 062235Z - 070000Z

A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS
SUPERCELLS MOVE ESEWD ACROSS WCNTRL NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE
REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD ACROSS SRN NEB.
THE STORMS IN CHERRY COUNTY NEB ARE LOCATED 70-80 STATUTE MILES
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS ACCORDING TO THE RUC IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL PROFILERS SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
60 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST ESEWD INTO CNTRL NEB EARLY THIS EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR. ATTM...THE
CONVECTION APPEARS ELEVATED. AS THE CAP WEAKENS EARLY THIS
EVENING...SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR RAISING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES.

..BROYLES.. 06/06/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...

LAT...LON 41830186 42350131 42420029 41819843 41239797 40699848
40389932 40400084 40470177 40860214 41830186

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