SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082003
COZ000-WYZ000-082130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...SRN NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 082003Z - 082130Z
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO N INTO THE
LARAMIE MOUNTAINS OF WY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN
CO AND LARAMIE MOUNTAINS OF SERN WY IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ADDITIONAL AREA
OF DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND JUST N OF AN AXIS BETWEEN
DEN AND LIC...NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DENVER CYCLONE...WHICH
IS WELL DEFINED IN RECENT SURFACE OBS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OVER FAR NERN CO...CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 50S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
PREVENTING MORE ROBUST SURFACE DESTABILIZATION. AT 19Z...A TONGUE OF
MID TO UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS EXTENDED FROM ITR NE TO FCL AND LAR/CYS.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM
/BASED ON 18Z DNR SOUNDING/...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TOWARD 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK
SHOWERY CONVECTION ONGOING SINCE LATE MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN
AND INTENSIFY OVER SERN WY AND NRN CO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITHIN THE
DENVER CYCLONE...GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE /UPPER 60S/ IS CLOSE
TO BEING ACHIEVED.
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOCUS TIGHTENING HEIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG
/40-80 KT/ MID-UPPER LEVEL W-SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WY/CO. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO SELY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD
INCREASING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /IN EXCESS OF 40-50
KT/...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF DEN.
..GARNER.. 06/08/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39310324 38980437 39060552 39980603 41240618 41980577
42070498 41800452 40710418 39900311 39560314 39310324
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