MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1021

ACUS11 KWNS 101545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101544
OKZ000-TXZ000-101715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101544Z - 101715Z

SEVERE STORM THREAT CURRENTLY OVER W TX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA TODAY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS FROM PVW TO SW OF CDS AS OF 1530Z IS
MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD AT 30-40 KT WITH EXTRAPOLATION TAKING IT N OF
WW 363 BETWEEN 1600-1630Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SWRN TX AND ERN NM
WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NOTED INCREASE IN
MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS AT TUCUMCARI NM. COMPARISON OF 12Z ELP AND MAF
SOUNDING DATA INDICATE THAT CONSIDERABLE TROPOSPHERIC COOLING IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE STRONGER
CAP OBSERVED FROM FWD THROUGH OUN.

LATEST TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT OVER W-CNTRL OK WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK. WHILE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING...THIS
MOISTENING COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS AREA WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.
THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING
PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE-BASED ALONG AND E/SE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 06/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 34830112 35590063 35989982 36129920 36089829 35769773
35379755 34709767 34159811 33759869 33649955 33819992
34799994 34830112

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.