SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101730
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-101900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / NERN OK INTO SWRN AND CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101730Z - 101900Z
TSTM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. SATELLITE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR OR SW OF CNU
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM OR STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM
THIS FEATURE THROUGH E-CNTRL MO. RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES NEAR
AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH
THE 80S. MOREOVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS STEADILY INCREASED
THROUGH THE MORNING AND MODIFICATION OF 12Z SGF SOUNDING FOR SURFACE
CONDITIONS OVER SERN KS YIELDS A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH A WEAKENING CAP. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GROWING
CUMULUS FIELD FROM BOURBON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN FAR SERN KS
ENEWD TO N OF SGF.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA...CURRENT SGF VWP SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MODESTLY
SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT. WHEN COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY.
..MEAD.. 06/10/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37099640 37679632 38399378 38739142 38509104 37969086
37079300 36629603 37099640
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