MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1048

ACUS11 KWNS 111552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111551
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-111715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL PA SWD INTO MD...ERN WV AND CNTRL/ERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111551Z - 111715Z

STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON: 1)
ALONG LEE TROUGH AND/OR 2) IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMNANT LARGE-SCALE
BOWING SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIKELY REINTENSIFY WHILE MOVING INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LARGE-SCALE BOWING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...EXTENDING ALONG A
HLG-EKN-15 W ROA LINE AS OF 1535Z HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO DIURNAL TRENDS AND MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM THROUGH
HIGHER TERRAIN. SO FAR...THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF
CNTRL/SRN VA WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COINCIDES
WITH THE STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING...SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG. FURTHER N...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN SLOWER TO WARM DUE TO
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED MOISTENING AND HEATING
OF AIR MASS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON NWD INTO SRN PA.

VWP DATA IN THE WAKE OF BOWING SYSTEM AT JKL/RLX INDICATE RATHER
STRONG WLY FLOW /40-50 KT/ IN THE 2-5 KM AGL LAYER. THESE STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP E OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY WITH
APPROACH OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS
SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR REINTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. ABOVE-MENTIONED KINEMATIC PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

..MEAD.. 06/11/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...

LAT...LON 37057939 38957925 40027898 40457835 40497753 40037668
38167658 36747748 36687890 37057939

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