SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131915
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-132015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EXTREME SERN ND / NERN SD AND CNTRL MN /
NWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131915Z - 132015Z
TSTM INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...POSING A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG
WIND THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED BUT A WW IS
UNLIKELY.
RADAR/SURFACE COMPOSITE SHOWS THAT TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM EXTREME SERN ND EWD TO DLH.
SURFACE OBS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING/ONGOING CONVECTION SHOW A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /POCKETS OF DEWPOINTS AROUND
50 F/. ASIDE FROM LIMITED POTENTIAL DUE IN PART TO AN OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND MORE THAN
ADEQUATE MID LEVEL FLOW PROFILES /50 KTS AT 6 KM DLH VWP/ MAY
SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE STRONGER CORES MAY BE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXCEEDING 25-30 DEG F WILL AID IN MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO THE
SURFACE...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
..SMITH.. 06/13/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46429727 46649684 46709330 46609155 46319114 45879112
45589134 45449654 45839718 46089741 46429727
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