MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1112

ACUS11 KWNS 141634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141633
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-141800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN IND INTO SWRN OH AND NRN/CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141633Z - 141800Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A WW.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW NEAR IND WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH SWRN OH AND ERN KY.
MEANWHILE...AN ATTENDANT PRESSURE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WAS PUSHING SEWD
THROUGH SWRN IND AND SRN IL.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CUMULUS INVOF
SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL IND INTO W-CNTRL OH WITHIN
WARMING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO
500-1000 J/KG. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD BE REMOVED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...SOME STRENGTHENING TO
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING OF UPPER GREAT
LAKES IMPULSE WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY. AS SUCH...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER W...TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH
OVER WRN KY WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY. HERE TOO...AIR MASS
IS ALSO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
THUS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO SPREAD
EWD THROUGH KY THIS AFTERNOON.

..MEAD.. 06/14/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38858615 39738602 40248563 40338466 39818354 39108290
38378281 37618323 37268385 36968563 36978704 37308769
37828749 38858615

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