SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151459
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-151530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/NERN AR/PART OF WRN TN/KY/FAR SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151459Z - 151530Z
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE MORNING ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR INTO
WRN PARTS OF TN/KY AND FAR SRN IL.
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL
MO SEWD THROUGH FAR NERN AR/WRN TN TO NRN AL. VEERED WSWLY 30 KT
LLJ EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME WHICH IS MAINTAINING THE ONGOING ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY FROM
NRN MO TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING OCCURRING FROM NERN AR INTO WRN TN...WHERE
NEW CU/TCU AND A FEW CBS HAVE FORMED SINCE 13Z VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT. DESPITE MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 C/KM/...
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER 70S/ WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATELY TO VERY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY RANGING FROM 1500-2500
FROM SRN MO TO WRN TN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED WEAKENING
SURFACE BASED CINH...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING SUGGESTING STORMS WILL
SOON BECOME SURFACE BASED. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..PETERS.. 06/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 36739151 37229205 37869164 37929078 37498944 37018833
36288771 35418801 35208847 35388967 36119088 36739151
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