SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161438
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...FAR SERN MO...SWRN KY...WRN TN AND FAR
NRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161438Z - 161545Z
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH THIS MORNING OR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NERN
AR/SERN MO TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY.
MID MORNING ANALYSES OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR DATA
INDICATED A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR... WITH A
WELL DEFINED COLD POOL /SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
SRN MO VERSUS VALUES RISING THROUGH THE 80S DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS/.
IN ADDITION SGF WSR-88D VAD INDICATED A 50-60 KT REAR INFLOW JET AT
3-4 KM AGL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LEAD TSTM LINE AND ALSO CURRENTLY
WITH THE SYSTEM IN FAR SRN MO/NRN AR. SOME DECREASE IS EXPECTED OF
A 50 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM OK INTO AR THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS JET SHOULD NOT DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 40 KT AS IT
TRANSLATES ENE TOWARD THE LOWER TN VALLEY GIVEN SUPPORT BY A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE/50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET TRACKING THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY TODAY.
DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS THAT WOULD SUPPORT AN EVENTUAL
INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS...
SURFACE BASED INHIBITION/CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE A PRIMARY
NEGATIVE FACTOR LIMITING A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING...12Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE CAP WILL LIKELY NOT BREAK AND THUS PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT SWD FROM THE CURRENT COMPLEX...ESPECIALLY INTO SRN AR.
MEANWHILE...LIKELIHOOD FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE GREATEST
TOWARD THE LOWER TN VALLEY...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG LLJ/STRONG SURFACE HEATING ON EDGE OF CAP WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. TRENDS IN
INHIBITION WILL BE MONITORED...WITH POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE LATER
THIS MORNING OR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
..PETERS.. 06/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 35159251 36409112 36899047 37378978 37848857 37708727
36658729 35578781 34878829 34818895 34898957 34869117
34879181 35159251
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