SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171717
KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-171815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NERN KS AND S CNTRL/SERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 171717Z - 171815Z
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ONGOING IN N CNTRL KS...AND AN INCREASE IN
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL WILL TRANSITION INTO A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DMGG
WINDS...AND TORNADOES BY MID AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AT TOP/OAX USING 17Z OBSERVATIONAL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINS...OWING TO AMPLE SURFACE
HEATING AND AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
IS ONGOING IN JEWELL/REPUBLIC COUNTIES ALONG A LIFTING WARM FRONT
ROUGHLY NEAR THE CNTRL KS/NEB BORDERS. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS LIKELY
ELEVATED AT THE MOMENT...ADJUSTED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
STORMS MAY BECOME SURFACE-BASED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...EXTREME INSTABILITY...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
40 TO 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INITIALLY CAPABLE OF LARGE/VERY
LARGE HAIL. AS STORMS BECOME ROOTED AT THE SURFACE...DMGG WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED...WHILE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...SAMPLED BY
TOPEKA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LIFTING WARM FRONT.
..HURLBUT.. 06/17/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...GLD...
LAT...LON 39439515 39159728 39249954 39980005 40659917 40659656
40269538 39439515
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