SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181442
ILZ000-IAZ000-181615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181442Z - 181615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER NERN IA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE E/SE OF WW 460 AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED.
AN INTENSE TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG SRN END OF MCS /OVER
HARDIN AND MARSHALL COUNTIES AS OF 1430Z/ WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH
N-CNTRL INTO NERN IA THIS MORNING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING
BOW ECHO OVER SRN IND. HOWEVER...20-30 KT SWLY LLJ /PER DSM VWP/ IS
MAINTAINING THE INFLUX OF A VERY MOIST AND STEEP LAPSE RATE AIR MASS
IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH MUCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG PER 12Z TOP
SOUNDING.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS
SAME GENERAL AREA WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN MCS SEWD INTO PARTS
OF NRN AND CNTRL IL. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES.
..MEAD.. 06/18/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 42349218 42649157 42469056 42058969 41718872 41038891
40438973 40729088 41649211 42349218
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