SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181512
FLZ000-181645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181512Z - 181645Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK
AT 1630Z AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER FAR
NERN FL...NAMELY NASSAU...DUVAL INTO BAKER COUNTIES AS OF 1505Z.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV SPAWNED BY
NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAX/TBW
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS GIVEN AMPLE DIABATIC HEATING.
MOREOVER...CURRENT JAX VWP SHOWS 30-35 KT NNWLY WINDS IN THE 3-6 KM
AGL LAYER WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION INTO A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS.
..MEAD.. 06/18/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 28748254 29428276 29998258 30288217 30148168 29628136
28988130 28448146 28168184 28358246 28748254
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