SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201913
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-202045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN KS INTO NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 201913Z - 202045Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE FAR
WRN OK PNHDL INTO FAR NERN NM WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTING NWD THROUGH NRN OK INTO SRN KS. TSTMS WHICH INITIATED
EARLIER OVER GRANT COUNTY OK CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS OF 19Z OVER
SUMNER COUNTY KS NEAR WARM FRONT WITHIN A WARM...MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
MOREOVER...CURRENT ICT VWP INDICATES MODEST VEERING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...RESULTING OF 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 20 KT. THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH LCL/LFC
HEIGHTS BELOW 1 KM SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS
STORMS INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT.
FARTHER SW OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN OK...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG ERN FRINGE OF DENSER
CLOUD COVER WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS YIELDED
MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHOULD STORMS ALSO DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES SURFACE WARM FRONT.
..MEAD.. 06/20/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36300076 36990061 37929918 38309703 38159634 37899608
37439609 37109694 36769894 36449941 36089986 36030045
36300076
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