MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1256

ACUS11 KWNS 202305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202304
KSZ000-210100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN...CNTRL THROUGH NE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202304Z - 210100Z

A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS
EVENING IN CORRIDOR FROM SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN KS. TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN
KS EWD THROUGH CNTRL KS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS
IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING ACROSS OK AND KS IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM S CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL KS WHERE
THIS FEATURE INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. RECENT VWP TRENDS INDICATE
AN INCREASE IN STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN THIS REGION. STORMS HAVE
SHOWN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY LAST HOUR IN VICINITY OF MCV MOVING
NWD THROUGH S CNTRL KS. CONCERN IS THAT AS THESE STORMS LIFT NWD AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DEVELOP NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE TOWARD MID EVENING.

..DIAL.. 06/20/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 38119593 37699804 37559930 38659911 39319582 38519518
38119593

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