SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211800
SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-211930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN INTO UPSTATE AND CNTRL SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211800Z - 211930Z
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS
ATTEMPTING TO BECOME SUSTAINED OVER ERN TN /E OF TYS/ ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM S-CNTRL KY THROUGH ERN TN/FAR WRN NC TO
JUST E OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. AIR MASS ALONG AND W OF THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS HOT AND MOIST WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A CLUSTER OF SUSTAINED STORMS
WILL EVOLVE. THIS IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE APPARENT NEAR TERM
STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER WRN NC INTO UPSTATE SC IN WAKE
OF DECAYING TSTM COMPLEX THIS MORNING. SHOULD STRONGER DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SEWD-MOVING TSTM COMPLEX GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STRONG...DEEP NWLY SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO
UNFOLD.
..MEAD.. 06/21/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 35668384 36458381 36448314 35738180 34858115 34288108
33808150 33708190 34328274 35668384
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