SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221829
NDZ000-MTZ000-222030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MT/WRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221829Z - 222030Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER MCCONE...PRAIRIE...AND
DAWSON COUNTIES OF ERN MT...AND DOWNSTREAM REGION IS BEING MONITORED
FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE WW.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SERN ID/NWRN WY...COINCIDENT WITH A
REGION OF STRONG PV ADVECTION EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN MT INTO WRN ND
IS MODERATELY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD TOWARD WRN ND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
..WEISS.. 06/22/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 47740505 48200459 48660334 48790126 48180039 46870032
46550195 46460487 46800531 47740505
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