MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1302

ACUS11 KWNS 241846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241846
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-242045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MT..WRN ND...NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241846Z - 242045Z

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NERN MT...WITH ADDITIONAL CU FIELD DEVELOPING
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER NWRN SD. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE NEED FOR A WW.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM SRN
INTO NWRN SD AND EXTENDING NWD INTO EXTREME ERN MT AND WRN ND.
CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS SRN ND
AND NERN SD WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S. 18Z SPECIAL
SOUNDING AT RAP SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER /9C
PER KM/ AND 1500 MLCAPE...WHICH APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS REGION.

SELY/SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT WITH
MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40 KT WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK AND A CAP APPEARS TO BE PRESENT ATTM...CONTINUED HEATING AND
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
EWD ACROSS SRN MT/NRN WY ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

..WEISS.. 06/24/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 45940480 46640540 47720506 48940392 48920279 47840204
46250188 45000036 44240033 44720300 45540435 45940480

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