SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251614
NYZ000-251715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251614Z - 251715Z
SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE NY...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
ONTARIO...WELL AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR/WI. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN IN LARGE PART
BY RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING ALONG ZONE OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY...RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG WRN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY BE ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE FURTHER
STEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS UPSTATE NY...IT APPEARS
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT. AS WLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS SRN ONTARIO IT/S LIKELY
THAT EVOLVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO INTO UPSTATE NY. GIVEN THAT ACTIVITY NEAR TORONTO HAS
ALREADY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT HAIL THREAT
WILL BE NOTED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WINDS.
..DARROW.. 06/25/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43967830 44087564 42997509 42167598 42347791 42827931
43967830
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