SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251906
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E CNTRL CO...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251906Z - 252000Z
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD. DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLD
BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ABOVE NORMAL PWAT/MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN FAVORED UPSLOPE IN NERN/E CNTRL CO AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SELY/ELY...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING CU FIELD IN SERN WY. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND DEW POINTS
PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL VORT
MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...OVERALL
FLOW/UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. HOWEVER...ROUGHLY 30
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZATION AND BRIEF
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AS SELY/ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY
ALOFT SUPPORTS UPDRAFT ROTATION. BRIEF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. MEAN WLY FLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO GRADUALLY
DEVELOP EWD INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE
DEW POINT SPREADS...AND A DMGG WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE
AS CLUSTERS SPREAD EWD.
..HURLBUT.. 06/25/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39250331 38480448 38970565 40110558 41160572 41970515
42330378 42100293 41070218 39770208 39250331
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