SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271737
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-271830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ND...FAR NRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271737Z - 271830Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL CAN BE ANTICIPATED
WITH STRONGER STORMS...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AS WELL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE THROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN
ND/SD...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT WILL INFLUENCE
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 17Z VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT IN SWRN ND...AHEAD OF ONE VORT MAX IN ERN MT ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES S OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NRN/CNTRL ND HAVE QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S...AND COMBINED WITH 50S DEW POINTS...REMAINING CINH SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY BE REMOVED WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...-19 TO -21 C AT 500 MB PER 12Z RAOBS...COMBINED
WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE MULTICELLULAR
STRUCTURES AND OCCASIONAL SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL. DMGG WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN.
..HURLBUT.. 06/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 46759690 44629660 45510005 45560198 45450348 46260423
46860230 47569920 47879748 46759690
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