SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271923
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-272130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...SOUTH CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271923Z - 272130Z
SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IF PULSE SEVERE STORMS CAN CONSOLIDATE INTO A
COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH A COLD POOL.
AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM MHK TO SOUTH OF AMA.
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TX PANHANDLE. DESPITE WEAK FORCING
ALOFT...STRONG HEATING/CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OK...SO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAK...EXCEPT NORTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE NLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AOA 100 DEGREES AND
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 30-40 DEGREES ARE RESULTING IN A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB. THIS
ENVIRONMENT FAVORS STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THE THREAT IS GREATEST
FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH IF STORM DOWNDRAFTS CAN MERGE INTO
A CLUSTER WITH A COLD POOL...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE
MIGHT BE NEEDED.
..IMY.. 06/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35190302 35780156 37869866 38689700 37899614 36889714
34750012 34090192 34190292 34670306 35190302
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