Monday, June 29, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1373

ACUS11 KWNS 291701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291701
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-291900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291701Z - 291900Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
SOUTHERN GA AND NORTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INCREASING TCU AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL.
TWO ZONES OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE INDICATED IN
SURFACE/SATELLITE DATA...ONE EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF SAV TO SOUTH OF
DHN...AND THE OTHER ACROSS FAR NORTH FL. THIS AREA IS VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS THE MID 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3000
J/KG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY. MORNING RAOBS ALSO SHOWED
SUBSTANTIAL WATER CONTENT WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT
WITH A FEW LAYERS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COMBINATION
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO PULSE OR DISORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS.

..HART.. 06/29/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 31348463 31638282 30768144 29938092 29588174 29578353
29508517 30268631 30798671 31188637 31348463

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