SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301753
ARZ000-OKZ000-301930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...CENTRAL AND WRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301753Z - 301930Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL
AR...ERN OK DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
AT 17Z...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR EAST CENTRAL MO SWWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/WRN OK. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM SWRN MO SEWD INTO
CENTRAL AR AND THEN NEWD INTO NERN AR. SOUTH/WEST OF THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 90S AND
THE AIR MASS HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG. MODELS VARY ON TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE...BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING
SEWD THROUGH SERN KS/SWRN MO. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS
WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION DUE TO STRONG HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE/LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE TWO
PRE-MENTIONED BOUNDARIES. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
S/SEWD MOVING SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS.
..IMY.. 06/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35959675 36369402 35489294 35049166 33709208 33879420
34719610 35959675
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