MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1381

ACUS11 KWNS 301938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301938
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-302115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301938Z - 302115Z

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT
FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH SPARSE
STORM COVERAGE...SO A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

AT 19Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED NEAR 35 N OKC-AMA-LVS LINE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FRONT HAD WARMED INTO THE MID 90S...WITH
DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. EVEN THOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAD MIXED AND DRIED...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...PW/S
BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 INCHES AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HEAVY RAIN CORES...THE STRONGER
DOWNDRAFT INTO THE WELL MIXED AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND THE LACK OF RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY WIDELY
SCATTERED...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORM BRIEF. ALSO...THE
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS
MOVING SSEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM.

..IMY.. 06/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36800408 36920201 35789847 35429829 35129841 35099870
35390021 35470216 35690434 36800408

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