SWODY2
SPC AC 011723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NJ/NY AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL FRONT RANGE/HIGH
PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO MO RIVER VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND A BELT OF FASTER
WLY/NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
THE MO RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL
INCLUDE OCCLUDED AND SECONDARY LOWS LIFTING NEWD FROM NY/NJ TO NRN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD AND WEAK/TRAILING BOUNDARIES EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TO FL...AND THEN WWD ALONG THE GULF
COAST. FARTHER WEST...WEAK POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO TO MT WHILE A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY EVOLVES BETWEEN HOT/CAPPED AIRMASS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE SRN PLAINS...AND COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY.
...NORTHEAST...
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM SERN NY
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BENEATH MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND WITHIN
AREAS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN PROXIMITY
TO WEAK SECONDARY LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING HOURS. WHILE THIS AREA WILL LIE ON THE NRN EDGE OF
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THE NYC-BOS CORRIDOR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A
FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS /POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD...
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION WILL EXIST FROM KS/NEB NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHERE MASS
TRANSPORT ON NOSE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME STRONG INHIBITION ACROSS THESE REGIONS. CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE
WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD. RELATIVELY
MOIST POST-FRONTAL/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME FROM CO TO ERN MT...AND
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP FROM
DAKOTAS SEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
THESE AREAS WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL BUT OVERALL ORGANIZED STORM COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE BY RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE SHEAR AND
LIMITED INHIBITION COEXIST. A FEW STORM CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NEB PNHDL TO NERN CO INTO THE NIGHT AS WEAK
FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THIS REGION.
...KS/MO LATE...
ANOTHER CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS MAY PERSIST AFTER DARK AIDED BY
DIURNAL INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLE MCV FROM EARLIER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TSTM PROBABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES/MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE EDGE OF STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION.
...GULF COAST FROM LA TO FL...
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTERACT WITH GULF BREEZES TO LOCALLY
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...EXPECT ISOLATED
STORMS TO BRIEFLY POSE A THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS.
..CARBIN.. 07/01/2009
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