SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012144
VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-012245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...FAR WRN VT/MA/CT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536...
VALID 012144Z - 012245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536
CONTINUES.
THREATS PRIMARILY OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OCCASIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
THE INITIAL VORT MAX THAT INFLUENCED EARLIER CONVECTION NOW APPEARS
TO BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH THE REMAINING ASCENT ON THE
TAIL END APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SOME DEGREE OF ASCENT FOR RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY LIMIT MORE ROBUST STORMS...A SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE MOVING NEWD INTO NERN PA MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDE LOCALIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. 18Z ALBANY SOUNDING REFLECTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR HAIL PRODUCTION...THOUGH
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS SHOWN ON VAD WIND PROFILE DATA AND DECREASING
INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND SUBSEQUENT HAIL
SIZES. HOWEVER...A THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.
..HURLBUT.. 07/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 41537504 44087516 44417570 45037501 45027254 44067273
43647237 42787257 41497276 41537504
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